820 
 WTPA45 PHFO 272053
 TCDCP5
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP112009
 1100 AM HST THU AUG 27 2009
 
 VISIBLE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CENTER OF HILDA IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED
 TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING.
 SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATED INTENSITIES ARE 2.0 / 30 KT FOR 1800
 UTC FROM THE THREE FIX AGENCIES...AND GIVEN A 1645 UTC QUIKSCAT
 PASS THAT SUGGESTED THE CONTINUED EXISTENCE OF 30 KT WINDS NORTH OF
 THE CENTER...THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. 
 
 HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...280/11...WITH THIS MOTION A LITTLE
 SOUTH OF THAT CONTAINED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NECESSITATED BY
 A MICROWAVE-ASSISTED SHIFT SOUTHWARD IN THE OVERNIGHT BEST TRACK
 POSITIONS. THIS MOTION MATCHES WELL WITH ANIMATION OF VISIBLE
 IMAGERY EXTENDING BACK TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. HILDA IS MOVING
 WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
 CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WITH THIS FEATURE
 FORECAST TO TRACK WEST IN TANDEM WITH HILDA...MAINTAINING SOME
 SEMBLANCE OF NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT. THE
 CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT CONTAINED IN THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY...SAVE FOR THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE INITIAL POSITION...
 AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN...WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL WITH
 HILDA. 
 
 HILDA APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...AS CONVECTION STRUGGLES TO
 PERSIST OVER THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH SSTS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
 ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...NONE OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE
 INDICATES SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF HILDA...WITH
 NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR REMAINING A SIGNIFICANT INHIBITOR. HAVE
 CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF HILDA WEAKEING TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 
 THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/2100Z 14.1N 155.0W    30 KT
  12HR VT     28/0600Z 14.4N 156.7W    25 KT
  24HR VT     28/1800Z 14.8N 158.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  36HR VT     29/0600Z 15.2N 161.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  48HR VT     29/1800Z 15.9N 163.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD