806 
 WTPA45 PHFO 271445
 TCDCP5
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP112009
 500 AM HST THU AUG 27 2009
 
 HILDA REMAINS WEAK. THE DEPRESSION SEEMS TO BE TRACKING
 WEST-NORTHWEST BUT FINDING THE CENTER HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE. 
 
 CURRENT INTENSITIES WERE 2.0 FROM JTWC AND SAB AND 2.5 FROM PHFO. I
 HAVE KEPT THE INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 30 KT. THE CONVECTIVE BAND
 NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. NEW CONVECTION HAS
 DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS SOME
 DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PATTERN
 INDICATES A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
 WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BUT DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF THE
 DEPRESSION AND NORTHWEST SHEAR GREATER THAN 20 KT SHOULD CAUSE
 CONTINUED WEAKENING. I EXPECT HILDA WILL BE A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72
 HOURS.
 
 THE DVORAK FIXES HAD LATITUDES RANGING FROM 13.6N TO 14.0N WITH
 LONGITUDES AROUND 152.7. HOWEVER...ANIMATION OF FOG-CHANNEL DATA
 SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE FARTHER NORTHWEST. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
 RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES TO HELP OUT AND THE CENTER LOCATION IS
 RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ALL SHOW A GENERALLY
 WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
 FARTHER TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF CENTER OF THE
 FORECAST TRACK ENVELOPE.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/1500Z 14.7N 153.5W    30 KT
  12HR VT     28/0000Z 15.0N 155.0W    30 KT
  24HR VT     28/1200Z 15.5N 157.0W    25 KT
  36HR VT     29/0000Z 16.0N 159.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  48HR VT     29/1200Z 16.7N 161.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     30/1200Z 18.0N 165.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON