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 401 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 292042
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
 200 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2011
  
 A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN
 HILARY MEASURED A PEAK SURFACE WIND OF 44 KT FROM THE SFMR AND A
 7000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 55 KT WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN
 QUADRANT.  BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY RESET TO 45
 KT.  THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1000 MB BASED ON DATA FROM A DROPSONDE
 RELEASED IN THE SECOND PASS THROUGH THE CENTER.  HILARY IS ONLY
 PRODUCING ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF
 THE CENTER...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AS
 IT MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS.  EVEN IF HILARY STOPS
 PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION SOON...IT COULD TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR
 THE WINDS TO FALL BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  THIS IS NOTED IN THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST BY THE POST-TROPICAL DESIGNATION AT 24 HOURS. 
 THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD DEGENERATE
 INTO A TROUGH BY 96 HOURS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT.  HILARY IS EXPECTED TO
 MAINTAIN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
 BUILDS ALONG 32N BY 24 HOURS.  THE RIDGE SHOULD FORCE THE REMNANT
 LOW WESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION.  SOME OF THE GLOBAL
 MODELS EVEN SUGGEST THAT HILARY COULD ACQUIRE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
 MOTION BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.
 
 MANY THANKS TO THE NOAA HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION AND AIRCRAFT
 OPERATIONS CENTER FOR THE DATA RECEIVED DURING THE RESEARCH
 MISSION.  HOPEFULLY THIS DATA WILL GO A LONG WAY IN HELPING US
 PROVIDE BETTER INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES WEAKENING
 OVER COLDER WATERS.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  29/2100Z 21.6N 120.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  30/0600Z 22.5N 121.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  24H  30/1800Z 23.4N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  01/0600Z 23.8N 122.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  01/1800Z 23.8N 122.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  02/1800Z 23.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
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