056 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 290854
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
 200 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2011
  
 COLDER WATER AND INCREASING SHEAR ARE TAKING A TOLL ON HILARY. THE
 COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHRINKING AND CLOUD TOP
 TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING. IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE
 THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HILARY HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE
 HIGHER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH A BLEND OF T- AND CI-
 NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT. THE RATE OF DECAY IS LIKELY
 TO ACCELERATE FURTHER NOW THAT A DECOUPLING OF THE CIRCULATION HAS
 OCCURRED...NOT TO MENTION THE EVEN HIGHER SHEAR FORECAST AND COLDER
 WATERS ALONG THE TRACK. THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SPIN
 DOWN...AND REMNANT LOW STATUS IS LIKELY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE
 NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN
 LINE WITH THE STATISTICAL/ DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
  
 THE CENTER OF HILARY IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE USING
 GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. LUCKILY...A COUPLE OF EARLIER
 MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SUGGESTED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
 MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...325 DEGREES...AT 6 KNOTS. SO
 LONG AS THE CIRCULATION OF HILARY MAINTAINS SOME VERTICAL
 INTEGRITY...THE TRACK SHOULD DUMBBELL CYCLONICALLY AROUND A MID- TO
 UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE STORM FROM THE WEST. AFTER THE
 DECOUPLING OF THE CIRCULATION IS COMPLETE...THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION
 AND ULTIMATELY ITS REMNANT SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AND THEN
 SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
 PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS
 FORECASTS...THE LATEST TRACK PREDICTION HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE
 TO THE LEFT FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS NOT
 MATERIALLY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  29/0900Z 20.0N 119.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  29/1800Z 20.8N 120.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  30/0600Z 22.0N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  30/1800Z 23.0N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  01/0600Z 23.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  02/0600Z 23.5N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  03/0600Z 22.5N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN