136
WTPZ44 KNHC 272039
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2011
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF HILARY HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW LARGELY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CENTER. AN EYE IS OCCASIONALLY EVIDENT IN INFRARED
IMAGERY...BUT NOT WELL DEFINED IN THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF FINAL-T
NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. HILARY SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...CROSSING THE
26C ISOTHERM BY 36 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS VERTICAL
SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
REACHING ABOUT 30 KT BY 48 HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID
WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AFTER
THAT TIME.
HILARY HAS NOW TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SLOWED A
LITTLE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/06. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY 36 HOURS AS HILARY IS PULLED NORTHWARD BY AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE HURRICANE FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARD
THE LEFT FOR THIS CYCLE AND SHOWS A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD A CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS...BUT STILL LIES WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS...WHICH REMAINS
AN OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 17.1N 117.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 17.5N 117.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 18.4N 118.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 19.4N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 20.7N 118.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 23.0N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 25.0N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z 26.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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