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 136 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 272039
 TCDEP4
  
 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2011
  
 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF HILARY HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC OVER THE
 PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW LARGELY NORTH AND
 WEST OF THE CENTER. AN EYE IS OCCASIONALLY EVIDENT IN INFRARED
 IMAGERY...BUT NOT WELL DEFINED IN THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES. THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF FINAL-T
 NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. HILARY SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...CROSSING THE
 26C ISOTHERM BY 36 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS VERTICAL
 SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
 REACHING ABOUT 30 KT BY 48 HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID
 WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. THE NEW NHC
 FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ICON
 INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AFTER
 THAT TIME.
 
 HILARY HAS NOW TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SLOWED A
 LITTLE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/06. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
 SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY 36 HOURS AS HILARY IS PULLED NORTHWARD BY AN
 AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE HURRICANE FROM
 THE NORTHWEST. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
 END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARD
 THE LEFT FOR THIS CYCLE AND SHOWS A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THROUGH
 MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND HAS
 BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD A CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE UKMET AND
 NOGAPS...BUT STILL LIES WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS...WHICH REMAINS
 AN OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT. 
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  27/2100Z 17.1N 117.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  28/0600Z 17.5N 117.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  28/1800Z 18.4N 118.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  29/0600Z 19.4N 118.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  29/1800Z 20.7N 118.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  30/1800Z 23.0N 118.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  01/1800Z 25.0N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  02/1800Z 26.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN
  
 
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