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 823 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 251439
 TCDEP4
  
 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2011
  
 HILARY HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE ON INFRARED
 IMAGERY ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAS
 DECREASED SLIGHTLY.  ON VISIBLE IMAGES...THE EYE HAS BECOME
 SOMEWHAT OBSCURED BY MIDDLE OR LOW CLOUDS.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
 TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 110
 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS
 AND IN A LOW-SHEAR ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS...SO VERY LITTLE WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48
 HOURS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AS A
 RESULT OF INNER-CORE CHANGES SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS...HOWEVER
 THESE CHANGES ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
 PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR
 SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
 THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE RATHER CLOSELY.
 
 ASIDE FROM SOME WOBBLES...THE TRACK OF HILARY HAS BEEN WESTWARD OR
 275/8.  A CONTINUED WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
 EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
 ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A MID- TO
 UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 24N 135W IS PREDICTED TO MOVE
 EASTWARD AND BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...AND MOST OF THE
 TRACK MODELS SHOW HILARY TURNING SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTH IN THE
 LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
 NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR
 TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/1500Z 17.2N 109.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  26/0000Z 17.3N 110.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  26/1200Z 17.4N 112.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  27/0000Z 17.5N 113.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
  48H  27/1200Z 17.9N 115.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  28/1200Z 19.3N 116.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  29/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  30/1200Z 24.5N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
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