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 679 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 230240
 TCDEP4
  
 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
 800 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2011
  
 HILARY IS A SMALL BUT POWERFUL HURRICANE. IT HAS DEVELOPED A
 DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. BOTH OBJECTIVE AND
 SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115
 KNOTS. IN FACT...LATEST OBJECTIVE NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT HILARY COULD
 BE EVEN STRONGER. SINCE THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND
 HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING...HILARY
 COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HAVING
 SAID THAT...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO OCCUR WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS
 IN INTENSITY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. BY THE END
 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO A LESS
 FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. 
 
 HILARY HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 8
 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS
 EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN
 SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK WITH
 SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...KEEPING THE CORE OF THE
 SMALL HURRICANE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THERE HAS
 BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE GFDL/HWRF FAMILY TURNS
 HILARY NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA OR THE SEA OF CORTES IN THE
 LONG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE
 HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...AND
 SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  23/0300Z 16.0N 100.8W  115 KT 135 MPH
  12H  23/1200Z 16.4N 102.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
  24H  24/0000Z 16.7N 104.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
  36H  24/1200Z 17.0N 105.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
  48H  25/0000Z 17.5N 107.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
  72H  26/0000Z 18.0N 110.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
  96H  27/0000Z 19.0N 113.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 120H  28/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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