199
WTPZ24 KNHC 220855
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
0900 UTC THU SEP 22 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA MEXICO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 98.1W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 98.1W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 97.7W
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 99.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N 101.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.4N 102.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.9N 104.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.9N 108.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 19.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 98.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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