108 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 220242
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
 800 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2011
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEP CONVECTION
 HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER. IN FACT...MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE
 AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING REVEAL A DISTINCT RING OF DEEP
 CONVECTION INDICATING THAT THE INNER CORE IS BECOMING BETTER
 ORGANIZED. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0
 YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR AND
 THE WARM OCEAN...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND HILARY IS EXPECTED
 TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY WITH THE GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
 RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSE
 THE STATISTICAL LGEM MODEL BUT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE HWRF.
 
 HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. THE
 STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY
 BUILD THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS
 PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
 WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
 HWRF/GFDL PAIR WHICH TURNS HILARY NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA
 OR THE GULF OF CORTES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE REST
 OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS HILARY ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
 THROUGH FIVE DAYS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
 GIVEN THE GOOD PROSPECTS FOR INTENSIFICATION...A TRACK NOT TOO FAR
 TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...AND THE WIND RADII...A TROPICAL
 STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. 
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  22/0300Z 14.4N  97.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  22/1200Z 14.7N  98.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  23/0000Z 15.2N  99.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  23/1200Z 15.8N 101.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  24/0000Z 16.5N 103.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  25/0000Z 18.0N 107.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  26/0000Z 18.5N 110.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  27/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA