153
WTPZ43 KNHC 242026
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED AUG 24 2005
THE COLD WATER IS FINALLY TAKING ITS TOLL ON HILARY. THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO SEPARATE FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS. NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS
DECOUPLING FROM THE CONVECTION...A MORE RAPID WEAKENING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
HILARY IS MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 330/7. RECENT RUNS OF THE GFDL CAPTURED THIS
MORE NORTHWARD MOTION BETTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND I HAVE
EDGED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION FOR THIS
ADVISORY. AS HILARY WEAKENS...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL
TURN BACK TO THE WEST UNDERNEATH A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HILARY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 22.2N 117.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 22.9N 118.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 23.9N 119.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 24.8N 121.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 26/1800Z 25.4N 123.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 27/1800Z 26.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/1800Z 26.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/1800Z 26.0N 134.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
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