Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 153 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 242026
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT WED AUG 24 2005
  
 THE COLD WATER IS FINALLY TAKING ITS TOLL ON HILARY.  THE DEEP
 CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO SEPARATE FROM THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT BASED ON
 AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS.  NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS
 DECOUPLING FROM THE CONVECTION...A MORE RAPID WEAKENING TREND
 SHOULD BEGIN...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
 
 HILARY IS MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH AN
 INITIAL MOTION OF 330/7.  RECENT RUNS OF THE GFDL CAPTURED THIS
 MORE NORTHWARD MOTION BETTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND I HAVE
 EDGED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION FOR THIS
 ADVISORY.  AS HILARY WEAKENS...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL
 TURN BACK TO THE WEST UNDERNEATH A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
 PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HILARY. 
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/2100Z 22.2N 117.9W    55 KT
  12HR VT     25/0600Z 22.9N 118.5W    45 KT
  24HR VT     25/1800Z 23.9N 119.7W    35 KT
  36HR VT     26/0600Z 24.8N 121.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  48HR VT     26/1800Z 25.4N 123.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     27/1800Z 26.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     28/1800Z 26.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     29/1800Z 26.0N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for HILARY

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman