838 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 240237
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005
  
 HILARY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. VISIBLE AND INFRARED
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE. IN
 ADDITION SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HILARY IS WRAPPING DRY
 STABLE AIR AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE IN THE CIRCULATION BENEATH THE
 OUTFLOW LAYER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA AVERAGE
 4.0...65 KT. THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 HILARY IS CROSSING SUB 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE ENTIRE
 CYCLONE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN 24 HOURS. 
 GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH 
 IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. 
  
 HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS
 AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO
 EXPAND WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE HILARY ON A GENERAL
 WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS THE
 CYCLONE WEAKENS TO A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED
 WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
  
 FORECASTER COBB/KNABB
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/0300Z 20.5N 116.6W    65 KT
  12HR VT     24/1200Z 21.1N 117.7W    60 KT
  24HR VT     25/0000Z 21.9N 119.3W    50 KT
  36HR VT     25/1200Z 22.5N 120.8W    35 KT
  48HR VT     26/0000Z 23.0N 122.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     27/0000Z 23.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     28/0000Z 23.5N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     29/0000Z 23.5N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
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