789 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 221440
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2005
  
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 90 KT.  FOR A
 FEW HOURS IR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLEAR EYE BUT THE PRESENTATION HAS
 DEGRADED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.  A MICROWAVE IMAGE AT
 8Z SHOWED A PARTIAL EYEWALL NEARLY ENCIRCLED BY AN OUTER
 RAINBAND/EYEWALL.  IT IS LIKELY THAT HILARY HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY
 BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
 ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE HILARY REACHES COOLER WATERS.  BY
 36 HOURS HILARY WILL HAVE CROSSED THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...AND THE
 INEVITABLE DECAY BLENDS THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
 FORECAST THINKING.  ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT HILARY
 WILL SLOW AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
 IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY DEFLECTED NORTHWARD. 
 A GRADUAL WESTWARD BEND IS EXPECTED AFTER HILARY PASSES THIS
 WEAKNESS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 HILARY HAS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION...AND THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE
 BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER BASED ON SHIP REPORTS.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/1500Z 18.6N 112.1W    90 KT
  12HR VT     23/0000Z 19.3N 113.9W    95 KT
  24HR VT     23/1200Z 20.0N 115.9W    85 KT
  36HR VT     24/0000Z 20.4N 117.3W    80 KT
  48HR VT     24/1200Z 20.7N 118.5W    70 KT
  72HR VT     25/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W    50 KT
  96HR VT     26/1200Z 22.5N 124.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     27/1200Z 23.0N 128.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  
  
 $$