247 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 280240
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014
 
 Hernan's cloud pattern has already begun to deteriorate a bit since
 it reached hurricane strength this afternoon.  The last few visible
 images showed arc clouds emanating away from the western semicircle,
 which could be an indication that drier air is getting into the
 circulation.  Satellite intensity estimates are somewhat
 conflicting, with the subjective numbers from TAFB and SAB
 increasing from 6 hours ago while the objective T-numbers from the
 ADT have decreased.  Therefore, the intensity is being held at 65 kt
 for this advisory.  Given the recent satellite trends, however,
 Hernan may not last as a hurricane for much longer.  The cyclone
 only has about 12-18 hours left before it crosses the 26C isotherm
 and plows over much colder water, leading to a quicker weakening
 trend after 24 hours.  The main difference with the previous
 forecast is at 48 hours and beyond, with Hernan now expected to
 become a remnant low by day 3 and dissipate by day 5.
 
 Hernan continues to move northwestward with an initial motion of
 310/13 kt.  This motion is being caused by a strong mid-level ridge
 located over Mexico and the southern United States and should
 continue for the next 36 hours.  After that time, the cyclone is
 forecast to turn west-northwestward and slow down considerably as
 it is left in an environment of weak low-level steering.  The
 updated NHC forecast is nudged a bit north of the previous forecast
 beyond 48 hours toward the model consensus TVCE.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/0300Z 19.3N 113.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  28/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  29/0000Z 21.8N 117.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  29/1200Z 23.1N 119.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  30/0000Z 23.9N 121.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  31/0000Z 24.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  01/0000Z 24.5N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg