997 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 090845
 TCDEP4
 HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008
 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 09 2008
  
 HERNAN'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH DEEP
 CONVECTION NOW A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE EYE.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT WHICH IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF
 THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  HAVING SAID
 THAT...HERNAN SHOULD BE AT OR VERY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND
 WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE
 CYCLONE NEARS THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS HERNAN
 WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 36-48 HOURS.  HERNAN COULD BE
 NEARING REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.
  
 HERNAN IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/09.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
 TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
 NORTH OF HERNAN.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...A TURN TO THE WEST OR EVEN
 WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS STEERED BY
 THE SHALLOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW.  TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED
 SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/0900Z 15.5N 122.6W    85 KT
  12HR VT     09/1800Z 15.8N 123.7W    80 KT
  24HR VT     10/0600Z 16.5N 125.2W    75 KT
  36HR VT     10/1800Z 17.0N 126.7W    70 KT
  48HR VT     11/0600Z 17.3N 128.2W    60 KT
  72HR VT     12/0600Z 17.5N 130.5W    50 KT
  96HR VT     13/0600Z 17.5N 132.5W    40 KT
 120HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 135.0W    30 KT
  
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