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 498 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 081459
 TCDEP4
 HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008
 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 08 2008
  
 AFTER A NOTICEABLE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING...SATELLITE
 IMAGERY INDICATES A CDO FEATURE NOW PRESENT WITH A HINT OF A RAGGED
 EYE WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS.  WITH DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES NOW
 AT T4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...HERNAN IS
 UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.  IN THE SHORT-TERM...SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT
 SUGGESTS LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR AMONGST OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS
 AND...ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...HERNAN SHOULD REMAIN OVER 26
 CELSIUS SSTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THIS BASIS...THE
 EXPECTATION IS THAT HERNAN SHOULD CONTINUE STRENGTHENING FOR THE
 NEXT 24 HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER IT REACHES COOLER
 WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS. 
 GIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION APPARENT IN RECENT SATELLITE
 IMAGERY...AND NO APPARENT HINDRANCES TO STRENGTHENING...THE NEW
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
 AND ABOVE NEARLY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 275/11...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
 HEADING DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED
 SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER...AFTER REVIEWING A HOST OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY
 THIS MORNING...WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL
 CENTERS ARE NOW VERTICALLY ALIGNED.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING
 FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
 SHOULD CONTINUE THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE OFFICIAL
 TRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THEREAFTER...A
 GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO BE STEERED MORE WITH
 THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...ON A MORE WESTWARD AND POSSIBLY
 WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      08/1500Z 14.7N 119.9W    65 KT
  12HR VT     09/0000Z 14.8N 121.6W    75 KT
  24HR VT     09/1200Z 15.1N 123.4W    80 KT
  36HR VT     10/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W    75 KT
  48HR VT     10/1200Z 16.1N 126.6W    65 KT
  72HR VT     11/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W    45 KT
  96HR VT     12/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W    35 KT
 120HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 135.0W    25 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB/KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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