807 
 WTNT45 KNHC 061431
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010
 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
  
 HERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING.  GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE
 IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME CONCENTRATED
 NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
 AT 45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
 VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT
 AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE
 APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
 WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.  AN AIR FORCE
 RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
 HERMINE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE
 ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  HERMINE
 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT
 INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
 PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
 IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 DUE TO THE LIMITATIONS IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
 CHANGE...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
 COAST TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY THAT HERMINE COULD STRENGTHEN
 MORE THAN EXPECTED.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/1500Z 23.4N  95.8W    45 KT
  12HR VT     07/0000Z 24.9N  96.9W    60 KT
  24HR VT     07/1200Z 27.0N  98.3W    55 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     08/0000Z 29.1N  99.6W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     08/1200Z 31.4N 100.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72HR VT     09/1200Z 36.0N  99.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI