291 
 WTNT43 KNHC 310241
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004
  
 HERMINE IS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND LOOKS LIKE A LOW LEVEL
 CLOUD SWIRL...A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...BUOY 44004 REPORTED
 SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KTS AND SEAS OF 15 FEET AS THE CENTER PASSED
 TO THE WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A 35 KNOT WIND MAXIMUM IS LOCATED
 BETWEEN THE BUOY AND THE CYCLONE CENTER.  SATELLITE T-NUMBERS FROM
 TAFB AND SAB ALSO SUPPORT A 35 KNOT WIND SPEED.  SO THE SYSTEM IS
 KEPT AS A 35 KNOT TROPICAL STORM UNTIL LANDFALL IN THE NEXT COUPLE
 OF HOURS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/24.  THIS MOTION IS KEPT UNTIL
 AFTER LANDFALL ON THE MASSACHUSETTS MAINLAND AND THEN A TURN 
 TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES AROUND THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND RUNS INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. 
 THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE GFDL SOLUTION.
 THE 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER OF HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A
 SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.
  
 FORECASTER JARVINEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      31/0300Z 41.1N  71.1W    35 KT
  12HR VT     31/1200Z 44.1N  68.6W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  24HR VT     01/0000Z 47.9N  61.8W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
  
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