288 
 WTNT43 KNHC 300829
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004
  
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T3.5 FROM TAFB...T3.0 FROM 
 SAB AND T2.5 FROM AIRFORCE GLOBAL.  BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL WIND
 SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KTS.  THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED
 ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATING THAT THE
 VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL PRESENT.  NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
 FORECAST AND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE WARM WATERS OF THE
 GULF STREAM INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS IT SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/16.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
 NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE LATEST GFS
 MODEL RUN KEEPS HERMINE AS A SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT DOES
 NOT MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON AS PREVIOUS THOUGHT.  HERMINE
 ACTUALLY ACCELERATES AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF GASTON AND DOES
 EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  HERMINE IS
 FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE OR TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
 TO A DEPRESSION BY THAT TIME.  THUS...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE
 REQUIRED.
 
 FORECASTER JARVINEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0900Z 34.6N  71.5W    45 KT
  12HR VT     30/1800Z 37.0N  71.7W    45 KT
  24HR VT     31/0600Z 41.5N  69.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     31/1800Z 45.7N  65.1W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
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