232 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 121433
 TCDEP4
 
 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number   3
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092019
 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019
 
 Henriette is a sheared tropical cyclone, with microwave and
 first-light visible satellite imagery revealing a low level center
 that is near the northeastern edge of the deep convection. The
 overall presentation of the cyclone has changed little over the past
 several hours, and therefore the initial intensity is being held at
 35 kt. This is in agreement with an earlier ASCAT pass showing a
 very small area of 30-35 kt winds over the northwestern portion of
 the circulation.
 
 The initial motion is 295/10 kt. Henriette is expected to continue
 this general motion for the next 24 hours as it is steered by a
 mid-level ridge that extends from northern Mexico to the north of
 the cyclone. A turn to the west is expected on Tuesday as the
 system weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The
 official forecast is slightly south of the previous one through 24
 hours, due to a more southward initial position. Beyond 24 hours,
 the official forecast is very near the previous one, and near the
 middle of the consensus aids.
 
 Northeasterly shear and dry air over the northern portion of the
 cyclone should continue to keep the low level center near the edge
 of the deep convection into tonight, preventing any further
 strengthening. By 24 hours, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26
 C SST isotherm and move into a more stable airmass. This should
 cause the cyclone to lose its convection and weaken on Tuesday, with
 the system likely becoming a remnant low by Tuesday night. The
 official intensity forecast is close to the previous one, and is in
 agreement with the various dynamical and consensus aids.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/1500Z 19.7N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  13/0000Z 20.2N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  13/1200Z 20.9N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  14/0000Z 21.4N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Latto/Pasch