503 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 120836
 TCDEP4
 
 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number   2
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092019
 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019
 
 Deep convection has continued to burst over the western portion of
 the cyclone overnight.  Although the system is sheared with the
 center located near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, a
 couple of ASCAT passes have shown a very small area of 30-35 kt
 winds over the northwestern portion of the circulation.  These
 winds extend no more than about 15-20 n mi from the center, but
 based on these data the initial wind speed has been increased to
 35 kt.  Henriette becomes the eighth named storm in the eastern
 Pacific basin this season.
 
 The ASCAT data also assisted in locating the center this morning,
 and recent fixes show that Henriette continues to move west-
 northwestward or 295/12 kt. The tropical storm should move
 west-northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer
 ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico.  As Henriette
 weakens, it is likely to turn westward within the low-level flow.
 The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory
 through 36 hours, but has been adjusted southward at 48 hours to be
 closer to the various consensus aids.
 
 Henriette is not anticipated to strengthen much more.  Although the
 system is predicted to remain over warm waters and within an area of
 light to moderate northeasterly shear today, nearby dry mid-level
 air is likely to prevent significant strengthening.  By Tuesday
 morning, Henriette will be moving over cooler waters and into a
 more stable airmass.  This should lead to weakening, and the
 cyclone is predicted to degenerate into a remnant low within
 48 hours, with dissipation occurring shortly thereafter.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/0900Z 19.5N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  12/1800Z 20.2N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  13/0600Z 21.0N 114.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  13/1800Z 21.7N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  14/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown