159
WTPA43 PHFO 110845
TCDCP3
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 10 2013
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT A 2 DEGREE DIAMETER AREA OF COLD
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER SINCE THEN. THERE
WAS A BURST OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITHIN THESE CLOUDS BETWEEN 830
AND 930 PM HST. WITH HENRIETTE STILL SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF LIFE...I
HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT 35 KT...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF
THE JTWC...SAB...AND CPHC FIXES.
HENRIETTE HAS CONTINUED MOVING ALONG VERY STEADILY TOWARD 265
DEGREES AT 18 KT. AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
NORTH OF HENRIETTE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST IN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS
NEARLY UNCHANGED.
DESPITE THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER HENRIETTE I HAVE
KEPT A FORECAST OF GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
HENRIETTE IS NOT TOO HOSTILE...BUT HENRIETTE IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM
AND MORE VULNERABLE THAN A LARGER STORM WOULD BE. OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS THE STORM HAS MOVED BY ABOUT 230 NM SOUTH OF NOAA BUOY 51004
WITH VERY LITTLE EFFECT ON CONDITIONS AT THE BUOY LOCATION. THE
PRESSURE AT THE BUOY IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
I STILL EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO
KEEP HENRIETTE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HENRIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TO BE DISSIPATED BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 13.6N 153.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 13.3N 156.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 13.0N 160.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 12.8N 164.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 12.8N 168.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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