159 
 WTPA43 PHFO 110845
 TCDCP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP082013
 1100 PM HST SAT AUG 10 2013
  
 CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED
 DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT A 2 DEGREE DIAMETER AREA OF COLD
 CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER SINCE THEN. THERE
 WAS A BURST OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITHIN THESE CLOUDS BETWEEN 830
 AND 930 PM HST. WITH HENRIETTE STILL SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF LIFE...I
 HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT 35 KT...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF
 THE JTWC...SAB...AND CPHC FIXES.
  
 HENRIETTE HAS CONTINUED MOVING ALONG VERY STEADILY TOWARD 265
 DEGREES AT 18 KT. AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
 NORTH OF HENRIETTE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
 WEST IN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THE MODEL
 GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS
 NEARLY UNCHANGED.
  
 DESPITE THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER HENRIETTE I HAVE
 KEPT A FORECAST OF GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
 HENRIETTE IS NOT TOO HOSTILE...BUT HENRIETTE IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM
 AND MORE VULNERABLE THAN A LARGER STORM WOULD BE. OVER THE PAST FEW
 HOURS THE STORM HAS MOVED BY ABOUT 230 NM SOUTH OF NOAA BUOY 51004
 WITH VERY LITTLE EFFECT ON CONDITIONS AT THE BUOY LOCATION. THE
 PRESSURE AT THE BUOY IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
 I STILL EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO
 KEEP HENRIETTE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HENRIETTE IS
 EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
 TO BE DISSIPATED BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/0900Z 13.6N 153.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  11/1800Z 13.3N 156.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  12/0600Z 13.0N 160.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  12/1800Z 12.8N 164.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  13/0600Z 12.8N 168.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON