678 
 WTPA43 PHFO 101455
 TCDCP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP082013
 500 AM HST SAT AUG 10 2013
  
 HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL
 CONVECTION...WHICH HAS PERSISTED EVER SINCE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
 BRIEFLY BECAME EXPOSED OVER 24 HOURS AGO. THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED
 TO BE FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COLD CLOUD TOPS...WITH A 1138Z 
 AMSU-B PASS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER LOCATION. DVORAK 
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT 
 CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH A 
 CONSENSUS CI OF 3.0 SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/17...WITH HENRIETTE MOVING ON A 
 TRAJECTORY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT AT A FASTER 
 CLIP. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE 
 WEST-SOUTHWEST THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS IT APPEARS THAT IT IS 
 NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. HENRIETTE WILL CONTINUE TO 
 BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO IT/S 
 NORTH...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE 
 PREVIOUS...AND THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH 
 ANTICIPATED THE OBSERVED ACCELERATION. 
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND SHIPS 
 GUIDANCE...AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS 
 IN 96 HOURS. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT WESTERLY SHEAR 
 WILL INCREASE IN THE 48-72 HOUR TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 
 POSSIBILITY THAT THE SHEAR DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW 
 HENRIETTE TO MAINTAIN IT/S STRUCTURE AS IT APPROACHES THE DATE LINE 
 BY DAY 5. 
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/1500Z 14.0N 148.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  11/0000Z 13.6N 151.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  11/1200Z 13.0N 154.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  12/0000Z 12.6N 158.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  12/1200Z 12.3N 161.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  13/1200Z 12.0N 169.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD