729 
 WTPA43 PHFO 090843
 TCDCP3
 
 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP082013
 1100 PM HST THU AUG 08 2013
 
 HENRIETTE CONTINUES ON A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND THAT BEGAN 
 EARLIER TODAY...WITH THE CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECAYING AND BECOMING 
 INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW NEARLY 
 COMPLETELY EXPOSED...LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WARMING 
 CLOUD TOPS...WITH LATEST SHEAR ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS DEPICTING 
 SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY SHEAR. A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY YIELDS 4.0/65 KT...AND THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE MINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS 
 OF 65 KT...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE 
 OBSERVATIONS.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/12 KT...WHICH INDICATES THAT 
 HENRIETTE HAS MADE THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
 THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO THE
 LATEST TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH SHOWS HENRIETTE ACCELERATING
 TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAY 2...AND THEN TURNING TOWARD 
 THE WEST THEREAFTER...AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND 
 NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES HENRIETTE OVER 
 MARGINALLY WARM WATERS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE DELETERIOUS 
 EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT SHEAR ON THIS TINY TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CAUSE 
 STEADY WEAKENING BEFORE DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 96 HOURS. THE NEW 
 INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES A MORE RAPID DEMISE DUE TO RECENT 
 TRENDS...AND IS CLOSE TO BOTH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND INTENSITY 
 CONSENSUS AID IVCN.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/0900Z 16.4N 141.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  09/1800Z 15.8N 143.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  10/0600Z 15.0N 145.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  10/1800Z 14.1N 148.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  11/0600Z 13.6N 151.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  12/0600Z 13.2N 158.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD