252 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 031442
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
 800 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2007
  
 HENRIETTE'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE THIS MORNING
 WITH AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW OVER THE
 SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
 SEMICIRCLE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT
 IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE HENRIETTE THIS
 AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD PROVIDE MORE PRECISE INFORMATION ON
 INTENSITY.  THE CYCLONE HAS ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS OVER WARM WATER AND
 VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 CALLS FOR HENRIETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND HAS BEEN
 CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 HENRIETTE APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE WITH THE
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 310/10.  THE OVERALL FORECAST
 PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.  A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
 FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
 SO IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
 OF THE UNITED STATES.  DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN REASONABLY CLUSTERED
 ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN NORTHWARD...TAKING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
 SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 36-48 HOURS.  THE GFDL
 MODEL IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS
 ON THE TRACK BUT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT FASTER IN TERMS OF
 FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARDS THE MODEL
 CONSENSUS REFLECTING A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT.  ONCE CROSSING THE BAJA
 PENINSULA...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD OVER THE
 GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
 COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.   DISSIPATION OVER
 NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  IT SHOULD BE
 NOTED THAT A 96 HOUR POSITION IS GIVEN SO AS NOT TO IMPLY
 DISSIPATION RIGHT AT THE COAST.  HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE
 CYCLONE WOULD SURVIVE A TRACK OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
 MEXICO.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/1500Z 19.9N 108.5W    60 KT
  12HR VT     04/0000Z 20.6N 109.5W    65 KT
  24HR VT     04/1200Z 21.8N 110.6W    70 KT
  36HR VT     05/0000Z 23.2N 111.4W    75 KT
  48HR VT     05/1200Z 24.9N 111.8W    65 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     06/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W    50 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     07/1200Z 33.0N 110.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
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