645 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 022031
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HENRIETTE IS TRYING TO FORM
 A BANDING EYE.  HOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT
 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 HENRIETTE IS LOCATED IN A SEEMINGLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
 STRENGTHENING...AND GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
 REMAIN BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND WITHIN A
 LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM
 FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DESPITE THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS MUDDIED BY THE FACT THAT HENRIETTE IS A VERY SMALL
 CYCLONE CAPABLE OF RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS...BOTH UP AND DOWN.
 MOREOVER...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO
 THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO. SUCH A SMALL CYCLONE COULD UNDERGO
 RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF THE CENTER STAYS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE.
 LIKEWISE...IT COULD BE EASILY DISRUPTED BY INTERACTION WITH THE
 COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD IT MOVE A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES HENRIETTE
 WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS FOR
 INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. BEYOND 72 HOURS...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED
 TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO
 WHERE IT SHOULD DISSIPATE. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD MAKE IT
 INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.
  
 VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER THAN
 PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 295/4.
 THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
 SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A LARGE
 MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE
 UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW HENRIETTE TO GRADUALLY
 TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD.  IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE
 GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED EASTWARD WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD
 SHIFT BEING IN THE UKMET.  THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERNMOST
 OUTLIER...BUT THIS SOLUTION CANNOT BE IGNORED GIVEN ITS PERFORMANCE
 LAST YEAR DURING JOHN AND LANE...TWO HURRICANES THAT SIMILARLY
 PARALLELED THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 AGAIN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE GIVEN THE
 RECENT MODEL TRENDS AND THE GFDL TRACK.
  
 HENRIETTE'S CURRENT SLOW MOTION DELAYS THE NEED FOR WATCHES OVER
 PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...BUT THEY MAY BE REQUIRED
 LATER TODAY.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/2100Z 18.6N 106.6W    60 KT
  12HR VT     03/0600Z 19.1N 107.4W    70 KT
  24HR VT     03/1800Z 20.1N 108.6W    75 KT
  36HR VT     04/0600Z 21.3N 109.7W    85 KT
  48HR VT     04/1800Z 22.6N 110.6W    75 KT
  72HR VT     05/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W    65 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA
  96HR VT     06/1800Z 30.5N 111.5W    40 KT...INLAND 
 120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
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