287 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 020844
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007
  
 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT OUTER BANDS...
 PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF
 THE CYCLONE...ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES REMAIN UNCHANGED
 FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BASED ON THE RECENT IMAGES...HENRIETTE
 COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING.  FOR NOW...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS ESSENTIALLY A CARBON COPY FROM
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED UPWARD TO A PEAK
 INTENSITY OF 80 KT AT THE 36 AND 48 HR PERIODS TO CONFORM WITH A
 BLEND OF THE GFDL...LGE MODEL AND THE SHIPS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER
 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
 SYSTEM MOVES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
 OVER COOLER WATERS.
  
 HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE LEFT OF TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
 AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 280/8.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
 EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
 FORCE THE CYCLONE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GENERAL MOTION DURING THE
 NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...HENRIETTE SHOULD BEGIN A TURN
 NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND ULTIMATELY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR
 SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE MAJORITY OF
 THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL
 AND ECMWF...WHICH HAVE BEEN REFLECTING A RIGHT OF TRACK
 BIAS...INDICATIVE OF UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO
 THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND IS BASED ON THE CORRECTED
 CONSENSUS MODEL.    
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0900Z 18.5N 107.0W    60 KT
  12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.7N 108.2W    70 KT
  24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.2N 109.5W    75 KT
  36HR VT     03/1800Z 19.8N 110.8W    80 KT
  48HR VT     04/0600Z 20.8N 112.1W    80 KT
  72HR VT     05/0600Z 23.4N 114.1W    70 KT
  96HR VT     06/0600Z 26.0N 115.0W    50 KT
 120HR VT     07/0600Z 29.0N 115.0W    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB