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 620 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 302027
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
 200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE THE AREA OF
 DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO IS NOW A TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION.  BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT...
 ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
 THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
 TAFB/SAB ARE 30 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  A
 SHIP REPORT AT 1700 UTC OF 41 KT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
 REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.  
 
 THE FUTURE INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BE DICTATED
 BY HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM GETS TO LAND AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
 PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS CHARACTERIZED THE EASTERN PACIFIC
 DURING MOST OF THE SEASON.  THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE KEEPS
 THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE BUT RELATIVELY CLOSE TO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. 
 THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS RAPID STRENGTHENING...TO 101 KT IN 72
 HOURS...ASSUMING THE SYSTEM STAYS OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER THE GFDL/HWRF
 DO NOT INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM VERY MUCH EVEN THOUGH THEY KEEP THE
 SYSTEM OVER WATER.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE
 CONSERVATIVE SIDE FOR NOW...BUT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN A CONSENSUS OF
 THE SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS.
 
 THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7.  THERE IS A WEAKNESS
 IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT SHOULD
 ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR A DAY OR SO.
 THEREAFTER...A TRACK MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
 ANTICIPATED AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES STEERED BY WEAK
 RIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
 NEAR BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT IS
 NOTABLE THAT GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT BEYOND 3 DAYS.  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/2100Z 14.3N  97.3W    30 KT
  12HR VT     31/0600Z 15.0N  98.2W    40 KT
  24HR VT     31/1800Z 15.9N  99.5W    45 KT
  36HR VT     01/0600Z 16.8N 100.9W    50 KT
  48HR VT     01/1800Z 17.5N 102.4W    55 KT
  72HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N 105.5W    65 KT
  96HR VT     03/1800Z 20.3N 108.3W    75 KT
 120HR VT     04/1800Z 21.5N 111.0W    75 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
  
 
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