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 789 
 WTNT43 KNHC 111456
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015
 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2015
 
 Visible satellite images indicate that the surface circulation of
 Henri has become rather distorted this morning. Multiple low-level
 swirls can be seen in the circulation that is elongated from
 southeast to northwest, with some suggestion that the cyclone may no
 longer be closed in the northwestern quadrant. The intensity is
 being held at 35 kt in agreement with the satellite estimate from
 TAFB.
 
 Although shear is somewhat lower over the cyclone, it appears that
 the low-level structure is too poor to take advantage of the more
 favorable environment. The intensity forecast has been lowered
 a little to reflect the less conducive conditions. The cyclone or
 its remnants are forecast to undergo extratropical transition in
 about 24 hours while moving over colder water with high shear,
 and the system is likely to be absorbed by a larger extratropical
 cyclone by 72 hours. An alternate scenario, one that is becoming
 more likely, is that Henri could degenerate into a trough later
 today.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 020/17.  Henri is expected to
 accelerate north-northeastward and then northeastward during the
 next day or so as it encounters increasing flow ahead of a deep
 longwave trough digging into eastern North America and the western
 Atlantic. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants should then
 turn east-northeastward over the north Atlantic. The new track
 forecast is very similar to the previous one and near or on the
 right side of the model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/1500Z 38.0N  59.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  12/0000Z 41.0N  57.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  12/1200Z 44.9N  54.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  13/0000Z 48.0N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  13/1200Z 50.0N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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