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 483 
 WTNT43 KNHC 110840
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015
 500 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2015
 
 Overall, Henri's cloud pattern has become slightly better organized
 since the last advisory.  While nearly all of the cyclone's deep
 convection is still located well to the northeast of the center, a
 relatively new convective burst over this area has grown in coverage
 and cloud tops have cooled.  Subjective Dvorak classifications
 remain below tropical storm strength, but the initial intensity held
 at 35 kt due to the cyclone's increasing forward speed and somewhat
 improved satellite presentation.
 
 Southerly shear appears to be diminishing over the cyclone, as has
 been forecast by the large-scale models.  The lower shear could
 allow for some additional intensification to take place during the
 next 12 hours or so while it remains over warm-enough waters.
 However, the continued presence of dry air in the near-storm
 environment and Henri's disorganized appearance suggest that any
 intensification should be negligible. After the cyclone crosses the
 northern wall of the Gulf Stream in less than 18 hours,
 substantially lower sea surface temperatures and increasingly stable
 air should induce weakening soon after that.  A plausible alternate
 scenario, presented by some of the global models, is that Henri
 could degenerate into a trough later today.  The cyclone or its
 remnants are forecast to undergo extratropical transition in about
 36 hours, with the system likely to be absorbed by a larger
 extratropical cyclone by 72 hours.  The new intensity forecast is
 very similar to the previous one.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 010/14.  Henri is expected to
 accelerate north-northeastward and then northeastward during the
 next day or so as it encounters the fast-paced flow ahead of a deep
 longwave trough digging into eastern North America and the western
 Atlantic. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants should then turn
 east-northeastward over the north Atlantic. The new track forecast
 is adjusted to the left of the previous forecast and lies on the
 right side of the guidance envelope.
 
 The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be
 post-tropical, is partially based on guidance provided by NOAA's
 Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/0900Z 36.2N  60.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  11/1800Z 39.0N  59.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  12/0600Z 43.0N  56.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  12/1800Z 46.5N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  13/0600Z 48.9N  45.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  14/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain
 
 
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