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 741 
 WTNT43 KNHC 110232
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015
 1100 PM AST THU SEP 10 2015
 
 Henri has changed little in organization during the past several
 hours.  The system continues to have some characteristics of a
 subtropical cyclone, with the convective banding and strongest
 winds well away from the center in the northeastern semicircle.
 The initial intensity remains 35 kt, as there has been no new
 scatterometer data from the area where the strongest winds are
 likely occurring.
 
 The initial motion is northward or 005/12.  Henri should accelerate
 and turn to the northeast during the next 48 hours as it enters the
 mid-latitude westerlies.  After that time, a quick eastward motion
 is expected until the cyclone dissipates.  The new track forecast
 is an update of the previous forecast and is just to the right of
 the various consensus models.
 
 The vertical wind shear over Henri is diminishing, so there is a
 chance that the system could intensify a little before reaching cold
 water north of the Gulf Stream in about 18 hours.  After that, the
 system should begin extratropical transition as it merges with a
 frontal system, and this process is expected to be complete in about
 36 hours.  The cyclone is likely to be absorbed by a larger
 extratropical system between 72-96 hours.  An alternative scenario
 is that Henri could degenerate to a trough between 24-72 hours as
 indicated by several of the global models.
 
 The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be
 post-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean
 Prediction Center.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/0300Z 34.8N  60.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  11/1200Z 37.5N  60.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  12/0000Z 41.2N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  12/1200Z 44.9N  54.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  13/0000Z 47.6N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  14/0000Z 48.0N  33.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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