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 886 
 WTNT43 KNHC 101435
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015
 1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015
 
 The cloud pattern of Henri remains disorganized with most of the
 convection sheared off to the east and northeast of the center.
 Visible images also indicate that the system has little organization
 in the central core, with multiple smaller vortices rotating around
 a mean center.  The initial wind speed remains 35 kt, although some
 Dvorak estimates suggest it could have weakened to a tropical
 depression.
 
 Southwesterly shear and dry air is currently limiting the amount of
 deep convection near the center of the cyclone.  Global models,
 however, all weaken the shear later today, which could allow Henri
 to strengthen while it moves over warm waters before it crosses the
 north wall of the Gulf Stream in 36-48 hours.  Henri is still
 forecast to lose tropical characteristics in a little over 2 days
 and then weaken while it moves over very cold water with high
 shear.  The intensity guidance is in relatively good agreement on
 this scenario and the NHC forecast is very close to the previous
 one.
 
 Satellite fixes indicate that Henri is moving northward at about 8
 kt.  The storm should accelerate northward today and northeastward
 tomorrow as it encounters faster steering from the subtropical
 ridge.  After that time, an even faster northeastward and then
 eastward motion is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in
 the mid-latitude westerlies.  There have been no significant changes
 to the guidance, and the NHC track forecast is basically just an
 update of the previous prediction.
 
 The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be
 post-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean
 Prediction Center.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/1500Z 32.6N  60.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  11/0000Z 34.5N  60.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  11/1200Z 37.8N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  12/0000Z 41.4N  58.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  12/1200Z 45.0N  53.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  13/1200Z 49.0N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  14/1200Z 45.5N  22.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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