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 053 
 WTNT43 KNHC 100836
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015
 500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015
 
 There has been little change in the cloud pattern of Henri since
 the previous advisory.  The tropical storm remains sheared with the
 low-level center displaced to the west of the main area of deep
 convection.  The initial wind speed is held at 35 kt, which could
 be conservative based on the earlier scatterometer data.  This
 intensity estimate is on the high side of the latest Dvorak
 analyses.
 
 Henri is currently being affected by 15-20 kt of west-southwesterly
 wind shear and dry air has wrapped around the west and south sides
 of the circulation.  The shear is expected to lessen later today,
 and that could allow Henri to gain some strength. However,
 significant intensification is not expected as the cyclone should
 cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream in 36-48 hours, where a
 sharp gradient in sea surface temperatures exist. Henri is forecast
 to lose tropical characteristics in a little over 2 days, when it is
 expected to be over cold water.  Most of the guidance shows the
 extratropical low dissipating by day 5, and the NHC forecast
 follows suit.
 
 The tropical storm has been moving erratically during the last
 several hours, but the general motion has been slowly northward.  A
 faster northward motion is expected to begin later today and
 continue for the next 24 to 36 hours as a subtropical ridge
 strengthens to the east of Henri.  After that time, an even faster
 northeastward and then eastward motion is predicted when the cyclone
 becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  The models are in
 good agreement on this overall scenario, and little change was made
 to the previous track forecast.
 
 The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be
 post-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean
 Prediction Center.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/0900Z 31.4N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  10/1800Z 33.0N  61.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  11/0600Z 35.9N  60.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  11/1800Z 39.3N  59.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  12/0600Z 43.0N  56.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  13/0600Z 48.0N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  14/0600Z 46.5N  29.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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