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 400 
 WTNT43 KNHC 092042
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015
 500 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015
 
 The depression's cloud pattern has not become better organized so
 far today, and the low-level center is exposed a short distance to
 the west-southwest of the main area of deep convection.  The deep
 convection itself is not well organized, with scant evidence of
 banding features.  Final data T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support
 keeping the intensity at 30 kt.  The vertical wind shear over the
 system, which is currently near 20 kt from the southwest, is
 predicted by the global models to relax somewhat over the next
 24 to 48 hours.  This would allow for some strengthening, as
 indicated in the official forecast.  By 72 hours, the cyclone
 should be located over cold waters and the global models depict it
 as embedded within a baroclinic zone.  Therefore the system is
 forecast to be extratropical around that time.
 
 The depression is still drifting east-southeastward or 115/3 kt.
 Over the next couple of days, a mid-level ridge is predicted to
 build to the east and northeast of the cyclone while a trough
 drops into the eastern United States.  This evolution of the
 steering pattern should cause the cyclone to move northward at an
 increasing forward speed into Friday.  Afterwards, the flow ahead
 of the trough should cause the system to turn eastward at an even
 faster forward speed within the mid-latitude westerlies.  The
 official track forecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamical
 guidance suite.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/2100Z 30.6N  60.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  10/0600Z 31.9N  60.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  10/1800Z 33.9N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  11/0600Z 36.9N  60.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  11/1800Z 40.7N  59.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  12/1800Z 47.0N  51.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  13/1800Z 48.5N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  14/1800Z 48.0N  18.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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