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 528 
 WTNT43 KNHC 091437
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015
 1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015
 
 The depression remains sheared, with the low-level center located
 just to the west of the western edge of the main area of deep
 convection.  The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt, which is in
 agreement with a Dvorak classification from SAB.  The vertical
 shear over the depression, which is currently near 20 kt, is
 forecast to diminish in 24 to 48 hours.  Therefore strengthening
 seems likely until the cyclone passes north of the Gulf Stream.
 By 72 hours, the system is forecast to be over water temperatures
 near 17 deg C, so it should be extratropical by that time.  The
 official intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS guidance.
 
 The depression has been meandering this morning and the current
 motion estimate is an east-southeastward drift, or 120/3 kt.  Over
 the next couple of days, a mid-level high is forecast to build to
 the east and northeast of the tropical cyclone while a shortwave
 trough moves into the northeastern United States.  This should
 result in a northward motion at an increasing forward speed
 beginning within 12 hours.  After 48 hours, the system should turn
 to the right and move within the mid-latitude westerlies.  The
 official track forecast is east of the previous one, but in good
 agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus.  An
 alternative scenario, shown by the GFS, is for the system to become
 absorbed by an extratropical cyclone centered near New England in a
 couple of days.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/1500Z 30.7N  60.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  10/0000Z 31.4N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  10/1200Z 33.0N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  11/0000Z 35.5N  61.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  11/1200Z 38.8N  60.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  12/1200Z 46.0N  54.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  13/1200Z 48.0N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  14/1200Z 48.0N  19.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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