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 800 
 WTNT43 KNHC 090847
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015
 500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015
 
 The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the
 last several hours.  The system remains sheared with the low-level
 center located to the west of the main area of deep convection.
 The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt based on the steady
 state nature of the system since the earlier scatterometer data.
 The current shear of about 20 kt from the west-southwest is expected
 to continue through the day, therefore, only slow strengthening is
 expected during that time.  The shear is anticipated to lessen in
 24-48 hours, which could provide a better opportunity for
 strengthening before the cyclone crosses the north wall of the Gulf
 Stream current in 2-3 days.  The cyclone is expected to lose
 tropical characteristics by 72 hours when it is forecast to be over
 sea surface temperatures below 20 deg C. The NHC intensity forecast
 is similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the
 guidance.
 
 The depression has been nearly stationary since the previous
 advisory.  A northward motion is expected to begin later today and
 then increase in forward speed during the next couple of days as a
 deep layer trough moves eastward toward the system.  The cyclone is
 forecast to become embedded in strong mid-latitude flow in a few
 days, causing it to accelerate and turn northeastward and then
 eastward. Only small changes were made to the previous track
 forecast, and it lies near the consensus aids.  The latter part of
 the track forecast excludes the GFS, which dissipates the system
 before it becomes extratropical.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/0900Z 30.9N  61.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  09/1800Z 31.3N  61.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  10/0600Z 32.5N  61.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  10/1800Z 34.7N  61.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  11/0600Z 37.7N  61.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  12/0600Z 44.5N  56.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  13/0600Z 48.5N  42.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  14/0600Z 48.0N  22.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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