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 893 
 WTNT43 KNHC 090425
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015
 1230 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015
 
 A recent ASCAT-B overpass indicates that the low pressure area
 east-southeast of Bermuda has developed a well-defined circulation
 with winds of at least 30 kt in the northeastern quadrant.  In
 addition, a strong cluster of convection has been persisting in the
 eastern quadrant.  Based on these developments, advisories are
 being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight.  It should be noted
 that the system has a large radius of maximum winds more
 characteristic of a subtropical cyclone.  However, data from the
 FSU phase space analysis and the strong convection suggest the
 system is more tropical than subtropical.
 
 The cyclone is currently nearly stationary.  A northward motion
 should begin on Wednesday as a deep layer trough moves into the
 eastern United States and weakens the subtropical ridge.  The
 cyclone is expected to enter the westerlies and turn toward the
 northeast after 48 hours, with this motion continuing until
 dissipation.  The forecast track lies in the center of the track
 guidance envelope in good agreement with the various consensus
 models.
 
 An upper-level trough just west of the cyclone is currently
 providing upper-level difluence, and this is likely enhancing the
 convection.  The dynamical models forecast the cyclone to become
 embedded in about 15 kt of southerly vertical wind shear on the
 east side of the trough.  While there is dry air entraining into
 the cyclone, the environment should allow for some slow
 strengthening through 72 hours while the system remains over warm
 water.  Thus, the intensity forecast calls for strengthening in best
 agreement with a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models.  After 72
 hours, the cyclone is expected to merge with a frontal system and
 lose its identity by 120 hours.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/0430Z 30.8N  61.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  09/1200Z 30.8N  61.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  10/0000Z 31.6N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  10/1200Z 33.4N  61.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  11/0000Z 36.0N  62.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  12/0000Z 43.0N  60.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  13/0000Z 48.0N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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