Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 567 
 WTNT45 KNHC 081431
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009
 1100 AM AST THU OCT 08 2009
  
 HENRI REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH EVIDENCE
 FROM SATELLITE IMAGES OF MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS
 WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS
 BEEN DWINDLING DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LITTLE BANDING NOTED.
 A 1012 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT...AND
 THIS VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE WILL
 REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
 TODAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.
 NEITHER OF THESE SITUATIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND
 HENRI SHOULD JUST SLOWLY WEAKEN. ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED
 LATER TODAY UNLESS THE SYSTEM SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.
  
 THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11.  HENRI OR ITS REMNANT
 LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST DURING
 THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
 WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE
 SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
 MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      08/1500Z 19.8N  62.0W    30 KT
  12HR VT     09/0000Z 20.1N  63.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     09/1200Z 20.2N  65.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     10/0000Z 20.2N  67.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     10/1200Z 20.2N  70.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for HENRI

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman