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 214 
 WTNT43 KNHC 091442
 TCDAT3
 
 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number   9
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018
 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018
 
 Helene continues to exhibit a fairly well-organized cloud pattern,
 but does not yet have a well-defined inner core.  The current
 intensity estimate, 55 kt, is based on a blend of subjective and
 objective Dvorak estimates and is also close to the latest SATCON
 value.  The tropical cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters
 with low to moderate vertical wind shear for the next couple of
 days.  Therefore, strengthening is likely through the early part of
 this week.  Later in the period, marginal SSTs and increasing
 south-southwesterly shear should induce weakening.  The official
 wind speed forecast is on the high side of the numerical intensity
 guidance.
 
 Helene continues to move westward, or about 270/11 kt.  The system
 should move westward to west-northwestward to the south of a
 mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic over the next 48 hours or
 so.  Thereafter, a mid-level trough is expected to create a
 pronounced weakness in the ridge along 40W-45W longitude.  This
 steering pattern is likely to cause Helene to turn northwestward to
 north-northwestward during the latter part of the forecast period.
 The official track forecast is very similar to the previous NHC
 prediction and lies roughly in the middle of the numerical guidance
 suite.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/1500Z 13.2N  25.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  10/0000Z 13.7N  27.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  10/1200Z 14.3N  30.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  11/0000Z 14.9N  32.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  11/1200Z 15.7N  35.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  12/1200Z 17.8N  38.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  13/1200Z 21.0N  41.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  14/1200Z 26.0N  43.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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