103
FONT13 KNHC 190845
PWSAT3
HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2006
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 246N 534W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 246N 534W 50 95 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
12 246N 534W 64 78 9(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
24 251N 550W 34 77 19(96) 2(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99)
24 251N 550W 50 25 51(76) 8(84) 3(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
24 251N 550W 64 5 46(51) 12(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
36 264N 563W 34 16 47(63) 25(88) 5(93) 2(95) X(95) X(95)
36 264N 563W 50 1 21(22) 38(60) 10(70) 4(74) X(74) X(74)
36 264N 563W 64 X 5( 5) 32(37) 10(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49)
48 283N 571W 34 2 11(13) 37(50) 26(76) 11(87) 1(88) X(88)
48 283N 571W 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) 28(47) 13(60) X(60) X(60)
48 283N 571W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) 11(38) X(38) X(38)
72 336N 561W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 50(57) 13(70) 1(71)
72 336N 561W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 8(39) 2(41)
72 336N 561W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) 1(23)
96 380N 520W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 33(44) 11(55)
96 380N 520W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 5(26)
96 380N 520W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13)
120 420N 450W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30)
120 420N 450W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
120 420N 450W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 105 110 110 110 100 90 80
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
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