434 
 FONT13 KNHC 181435
 PWSAT3
 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25                
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
  
 NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
  
 BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   9(23)
 BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)
 BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 239N  510W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
  12 239N  510W 50 90   6(96)   X(96)   X(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)
  12 239N  510W 64 69  13(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
  
  24 243N  528W 34 54  39(93)   3(96)   1(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)
  24 243N  528W 50  7  62(69)   9(78)   2(80)   2(82)   X(82)   X(82)
  24 243N  528W 64  1  46(47)  11(58)   1(59)   2(61)   X(61)   X(61)
  
  36 243N  545W 34  4  53(57)  25(82)   6(88)   4(92)   X(92)   1(93)
  36 243N  545W 50  X  21(21)  33(54)   9(63)   4(67)   1(68)   1(69)
  36 243N  545W 64  X   9( 9)  27(36)   7(43)   4(47)   1(48)   X(48)
  
  48 245N  560W 34  2  17(19)  39(58)  16(74)  11(85)   1(86)   1(87)
  48 245N  560W 50  X   4( 4)  23(27)  19(46)  11(57)   1(58)   1(59)
  48 245N  560W 64  X   1( 1)  12(13)  13(26)  10(36)   1(37)   X(37)
  
  
  72 270N  580W 34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  17(27)  36(63)   7(70)   2(72)
  72 270N  580W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  27(32)   7(39)   2(41)
  72 270N  580W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   5(22)   2(24)
  
  
  96 295N  595W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  29(31)  18(49)   7(56)
  96 295N  595W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  12(25)   3(28)
  96 295N  595W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   3(15)
  
  
 120 315N  605W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  21(33)   9(42)
 120 315N  605W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   6(19)
 120 315N  605W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND    110    115     115     110     105     100      95
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER AVILA