Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 509 
 FONT13 KNHC 162052
 PWSAT3
 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18                
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 200N  474W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
  12 200N  474W 50 68  12(80)   1(81)   X(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)
  12 200N  474W 64 30  18(48)   2(50)   X(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
  
  24 209N  487W 34 60  30(90)   5(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
  24 209N  487W 50  6  49(55)   8(63)   1(64)   2(66)   1(67)   X(67)
  24 209N  487W 64  1  29(30)  11(41)   1(42)   1(43)   1(44)   X(44)
  
  36 218N  498W 34 11  48(59)  20(79)   6(85)   4(89)   X(89)   1(90)
  36 218N  498W 50  1  16(17)  28(45)   8(53)   3(56)   1(57)   X(57)
  36 218N  498W 64  X   6( 6)  19(25)   6(31)   3(34)   1(35)   X(35)
  
  48 226N  510W 34  3  20(23)  31(54)  16(70)   9(79)   1(80)   1(81)
  48 226N  510W 50  X   3( 3)  19(22)  14(36)   9(45)   1(46)   1(47)
  48 226N  510W 64  X   1( 1)   9(10)  10(20)   6(26)   1(27)   X(27)
  
  
  72 240N  535W 34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  17(28)  25(53)   8(61)   2(63)
  72 240N  535W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  18(26)   6(32)   1(33)
  72 240N  535W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   3(16)   1(17)
  
  
  96 260N  560W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  21(25)  17(42)   7(49)
  96 260N  560W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  11(18)   2(20)
  96 260N  560W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)
  
  
 120 290N  575W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  15(21)  10(31)
 120 290N  575W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)
 120 290N  575W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     70     80      85      85      85      80      75
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA                                                    
                                                                     
                                                                     
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for HELENE

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman