554
FONT13 KNHC 160853
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 188N 461W 34 95 2(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
12 188N 461W 50 47 18(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) 1(67) X(67)
12 188N 461W 64 17 10(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) 1(29) X(29)
24 197N 476W 34 36 47(83) 7(90) 1(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92)
24 197N 476W 50 2 42(44) 11(55) 1(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58)
24 197N 476W 64 X 21(21) 9(30) 1(31) 1(32) X(32) 1(33)
36 206N 491W 34 3 39(42) 29(71) 8(79) 5(84) 1(85) X(85)
36 206N 491W 50 X 9( 9) 28(37) 8(45) 4(49) 2(51) X(51)
36 206N 491W 64 X 3( 3) 17(20) 5(25) 3(28) 1(29) X(29)
48 214N 504W 34 1 11(12) 34(46) 18(64) 11(75) 1(76) 1(77)
48 214N 504W 50 X 1( 1) 16(17) 16(33) 9(42) 2(44) 1(45)
48 214N 504W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 6(23) 1(24) 1(25)
72 230N 530W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 29(53) 9(62) 2(64)
72 230N 530W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 19(26) 7(33) 1(34)
72 230N 530W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 5(18) 1(19)
96 250N 560W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 20(41) 10(51)
96 250N 560W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 5(24)
96 250N 560W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12)
120 280N 580W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 13(34)
120 280N 580W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15)
120 280N 580W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65 75 80 85 95 95 90
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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