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 440 
 WTNT43 KNHC 151459
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006
 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006
  
 GOES AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
 IS BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL STORM. THE
 CONVECTION IS MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THERE IS A
 WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH WITH NUMEROUS
 RAINBANDS ALL AROUND. THE OUTFLOW IS PRIMARILY DEFINED TO THE SOUTH
 AND TO THE WEST.  IN FACT...T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED AND SUPPORT
 INTENSITIES OF AT LEAST 50 KNOTS. I AM ONLY GOING TO MENTION THE
 WELL-KNOWN PARAMETERS THAT FAVOR INTENSIFICATION...LOW SHEAR AND
 WARM OCEAN...AND THESE TWO ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT. THEREFORE...THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND HELENE COULD
 BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT A DAY.
  
 HELENE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING
 TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. HELENE IS
 CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A RIDGE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
 TOWARD A LARGE TROUGH OR WEAKNESS WHICH IS FORECAST TO COVER THE
 WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS NOT MUCH MORE TO ADD TO THE TRACK
 FORECAST EXCEPT THAT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SINCE MOST OF THE
 RELIABLE GUIDANCE... GFDL/GFS/UK/ECMWF MODELS AND SO FORTH...
 UNANIMOUSLY TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER OPEN
 WATER.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/1500Z 15.8N  41.4W    50 KT
  12HR VT     16/0000Z 16.6N  43.1W    60 KT
  24HR VT     16/1200Z 17.8N  45.0W    65 KT
  36HR VT     17/0000Z 18.7N  46.5W    70 KT
  48HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N  48.0W    75 KT
  72HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N  50.5W    85 KT
  96HR VT     19/1200Z 23.5N  53.0W    85 KT
 120HR VT     20/1200Z 26.0N  55.0W    85 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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