382 
 WTNT43 KNHC 130244
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006
 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS RATHER DISORGANIZED TONIGHT AND CONSISTS OF A
 BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS. AN
 AVERAGE POSITION OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION GYRE IS USED FOR THE
 HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL POSITION. THIS POSITION IS NUDGED
 SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... IN AGREEMENT
 WITH AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER WAS SOUTH
 OF 12N. CONVECTION NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE DEPRESSION IS SCANT...
 THOUGH THERE IS A SOMEWHAT CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
 CENTER AND HEAVY CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS RACING WESTWARD AWAY
 FROM THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT
 AND IS SUPPORTED BY BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT WIND VECTORS FROM QUIKSCAT. 
 
 ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATER AND EXPERIENCING
 RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR... IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE SOME
 TIME FOR THE LARGE SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS MUCH LOWER THAN
 SHIPS... WHICH SEEMS TO BE MUCH TOO FAST IN MAKING THE DEPRESSION
 ALMOST A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.  THE GFDL HAS A SEEMINGLY MORE
 REALISTIC DEPICTION OF THE FUTURE INTENSITY CHANGE... SLOW AT FIRST
 THEN MORE RAPID IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AND IS USED AS THE
 PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  
 
 THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/14. A STRENGTHENING
 MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON
 THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
 COUPLE OF DAYS.   BEYOND 48 HOURS... THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
 CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ALLOWING THE DEPRESSION TO START MOVING MORE TO
 THE NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN
 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAN EARLIER TODAY AND... CONSEQUENTLY... THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD AT DAYS 3-5.  THE FORECAST
 IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... AND CLOSE TO
 THE GFDL.  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/0300Z 11.8N  25.3W    30 KT
  12HR VT     13/1200Z 12.1N  27.8W    35 KT
  24HR VT     14/0000Z 12.4N  31.3W    40 KT
  36HR VT     14/1200Z 12.9N  34.8W    45 KT
  48HR VT     15/0000Z 13.8N  38.0W    50 KT
  72HR VT     16/0000Z 16.3N  43.0W    60 KT
  96HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N  47.0W    75 KT
 120HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  50.0W    90 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA