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 384 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 012037
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   5
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018
 
 Hector continues to become better organized.  Microwave data
 indicate that the low- and mid-level centers are now closer
 together, and visible satellite imagery is showing more curved
 banding features.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB and the CIMSS
 ADT are all 45 kt, so that will be the initial intensity.  Hector
 should continue to intensify for the next day or so in a favorable
 environment of light-to-moderate shear and warm SSTs.  However, a
 surge of northeasterly upper-level flow is forecast to impact the
 cyclone on Thursday, which will likely arrest the strengthening
 trend.  This stronger flow should abate late Friday or Saturday,
 leading to further intensification.  The latest forecast is below
 the consensus at shorter range, then above the consensus at long
 range. There remains the potential that the intensity forecast is
 too low at days 4 and 5, but the model guidance is too divergent
 with the upper-level environment at that time to have confidence in
 raising the forecast.
 
 Scatterometer and microwave data are showing the system moving
 westward at 10 kt. Hector should continue moving westward overnight
 and then even move a little south-of-west for the next few days
 as the subtropical ridge builds to the north and west of the
 cyclone.  The biggest change from 6 hours ago is that the guidance
 is faster at long range due to the tropical cyclone staying
 separate from an upper-level trough in the northwestward part of
 the eastern Pacific.  The latest NHC forecast follows the speedier
 trend of the guidance, but is not as fast as the ECMWF or UKMET
 models.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/2100Z 13.8N 121.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  02/0600Z 14.1N 122.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  02/1800Z 14.4N 125.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  03/0600Z 14.5N 127.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  03/1800Z 14.5N 129.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  04/1800Z 14.1N 134.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  05/1800Z 13.5N 139.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  06/1800Z 13.5N 143.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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