761 
 WTPA41 PHFO 101513
 TCDCP1
  
 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  41
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
 500 AM HST Fri Aug 10 2018
  
 Hector has been showing some signs of fluctuations of intensity
 early this morning. The eye was less distinct earlier this morning,
 but it is showing signs of becoming somewhat better defined during
 the past couple of hours. All of the satellite fix agencies (PHFO,
 SAB and JTWC) continued to indicate the subjective Dvorak intensity
 estimates are T6.0/115 kt. The latest UW/CIMSS ADT is T5.8/110 kt.
 Based on a blend of this guidance, the initial intensity will be
 kept at 115 kt.
  
 Hector's latest movement appears to toward the west-northwest, or
 285 degrees, at 14 kt. This motion is expected to continue today
 as Hector continues to be steered by a mid-level ridge located to
 the north-northeast. The western end of this ridge is forecast to
 weaken as a mid-level low pressure system develops near the
 International Dateline from tonight through this weekend. This
 is expected to result in a turn toward the northwest starting
 tonight, and continuing into early next week. The current forecast
 mostly follows the previous advisory package though 72 hours. After
 that, the latest forecast track is shifted slightly to the left on
 days 4 and 5. These subtle changes in the track were due to nudging
 toward the HWRF, as well as the consensus models, such as TVCN and
 GFEX.
  
 The latest intensity forecast is indicating nearly steady state
 conditions today and tonight. Note that there may be slight
 fluctuations in intensity during the next 12 to 24 hours, but
 Hector will likely remain a powerful hurricane through tonight.
 After that, we are expecting gradual weakening from 36 through 48
 hours. The weakening trend is more significant beyond 48 hours as
 Hector moves into an area of increasing vertical wind shear, as well
 as cooler water temperatures. The current intensity forecast is also
 in line with HWRF, HMON, and CTC2, which have verified the best so
 far. These models also show a faster weakening after 48 hours, but
 this forecast again shows a more conservative weakening trend for
 now.
  
 As a result of Hector's west-northwest motion, the outer winds from
 the hurricane will be far removed from Johnston Island. Therefore,
 the Tropical Storm Watch is being discontinued. However, the latest
 wind speed probabilities continue to show portions of the
 Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including Midway and Kure Atolls and
 the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument west of French
 Frigate Shoals may require a Tropical Storm Watch later today or
 tonight. It is also possible that if Hector does not weaken this
 weekend as forecast, a Hurricane Watch may be required for some
 areas. Note that there is no threat to any of the main Hawaiian
 Islands from Kauai to the Big Island.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/1500Z 17.7N 165.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
  12H  11/0000Z 18.5N 167.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
  24H  11/1200Z 19.8N 169.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
  36H  12/0000Z 21.3N 171.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
  48H  12/1200Z 23.3N 173.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  13/1200Z 27.0N 178.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  14/1200Z 30.5N 176.5E   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  15/1200Z 33.5N 173.0E   45 KT  50 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Houston