641 
 WTPA41 PHFO 100250
 TCDCP1
  
 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  39
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
 500 PM HST Thu Aug 09 2018
 
 Cloud top temperatures surrounding the eye of Hector have cooled
 and the overall symmetry in the satellite images has improved
 since six hours ago. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were
 5.5/102 kt from PHFO and JTWC, and 6.0/115 kt from SAB.
 CIMSS ADT increased at bit to 5.9/112 kt at 0000 UTC. Based on a
 blend of the objective and subjective estimates and the overall
 improvement in appearance, the initial intensity has been increased
 to 110 kt. Hector's movement has been 275/15 kt and this is the
 initial motion for this forecast package.
 
 Hector continues to move westward to the south of a mid-level ridge.
 The ridge is forecast to weaken as a low pressure system cuts
 off near the Dateline over the next couple of days. This should
 result in a gradual turn toward the west-northwest tonight and
 Friday, followed by a more northwestward track. The latest
 objective aids are in good agreement with this scenario. The
 forecast mostly follows the previous package though 48 hours, then
 was shifted slightly north at 72 and 96 hours to follow a slight
 northward shift in the dynamical consensus. 
 
 In the face of recent realities, the intensity forecast calls for
 slight strengthening of Hector tonight, followed by steady
 weakening after 24 hours. The increase in strength is in line with
 HWRF, HMON, and CTC2 which have verified the best so far. These
 models also show a faster weakening after 48 hours but the forecast
 shows a more conservative weakening trend for now. The weakening
 appears to be mainly in response to increasing vertical shear. 
 
 A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Johnston Island. If the
 expected turn toward the west-northwest does not occur, tropical
 storm conditions are possible there starting late Friday. Elsewhere,
 interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including Midway and
 Kure Atolls and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument west
 of French Frigate Shoals should monitor the progress of Hector.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/0300Z 17.1N 162.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  10/1200Z 17.5N 165.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
  24H  11/0000Z 18.5N 168.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
  36H  11/1200Z 19.7N 170.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
  48H  12/0000Z 21.7N 172.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  13/0000Z 25.4N 176.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  14/0000Z 28.5N 178.0E   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  15/0000Z 32.0N 174.0E   45 KT  50 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Kodama