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 066 
 WTPA41 PHFO 090919
 TCDCP1
  
 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  36
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 08 2018
  
 Based on reflectivity data from the South Point WSR-88D radar om the
 Big Island, microwave images, and satellite data, it appeared that
 Hector went through an eyewall replacement cycle late this
 afternoon. Since this reorganization of the hurricane appears to
 be complete now, the eye of Hector has warmed and become much better
 defined in infrared satellite imagery during the past few hours. As
 a result, the satellite fix agencies provided subjective Dvorak
 satellite-based intensity estimates ranging from 102 kt to 115 kt.
 The latest ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS is near 105 kt. Based on a
 blend of all of this input, we are maintaining the initial intensity
 for this advisory at 100 kt. Hector has been traveling nearly due
 west this evening, so the latest motion is 270/14 kt. Note that
 Hector passed about 25 n mi south of buoy 51004 earlier this
 evening. Wind gusts of 66 kt and seas up to 30 feet were observed at
 this buoy around 0700z this evening.
  
 Hector is expected to continue moving westward along the southern
 periphery of a strong mid-level ridge located north of the main
 Hawaiian Islands. This ridge is forecast to move little through
 Thursday. Hector is expected to gradually turn toward the
 west-northwest in 36-48 hours as it reaches the southwestern
 periphery of the ridge. After that, a more pronounced turn toward
 the northwest is anticipated after 72 hours. The updated track
 forecast lies close to the previous forecast and a tightly-packed
 guidance envelope through day 3. Increased guidance spread on days 4
 and 5 arises due to differences in the forecast strength and
 position of the ridge, and a developing low aloft to the northwest
 of Hector. The latest forecast adjusts the track slightly to the
 right of the previous forecast. This is based on the latest
 consensus guidance, including the TVCN and GFEX, as well as the
 HWRF.
 
 Since Hector appears to be maintaining its intensity after the
 eyewall replacement cycle, we have opted to keep its intensity
 steady through 48 hours. After that, some gradual weakening is
 possible from days 3 through 5 as it starts to encounter cooler
 water temperatures and increasing southwesterly shear. Interests on
 Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Hector. Based on the
 latest wind speed probabilities, a Tropical Storm Watch may be
 required for Johnston Island on Thursday.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/0900Z 16.6N 158.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  09/1800Z 16.7N 160.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  10/0600Z 17.0N 163.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  10/1800Z 17.5N 166.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  11/0600Z 18.4N 168.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  12/0600Z 20.6N 173.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  96H  13/0600Z 24.0N 178.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  14/0600Z 27.5N 177.5E   70 KT  80 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Houston
  
 
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