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 556 
 WTPA41 PHFO 090259
 TCDCP1
  
 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  35
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
 500 PM HST Wed Aug 08 2018
  
 Hector continues to have the satellite appearance of a strong
 hurricane, with cold cloud tops surrounding a well-developed eye,
 while radar reflectivity data highlight a concentric eyewall
 structure typically seen in intense hurricanes. Subjective
 satellite-based intensity estimates range from 102 kt to 115 kt,
 while ADT from UW-CIMSS is near 100 kt. Hurricane Hunters from the
 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron completed their final mission
 into Hector this morning, and sampled peak flight-level winds near
 106 kt. With little overall change in satellite appearance since the
 aircraft departed, the initial intensity for this advisory is
 maintained at 100 kt.
  
 The initial motion for this advisory is 275/14 kt as a mid-level
 ridge north of the cyclone continues to support a westward
 trajectory to the south of the main Hawaiian islands. The ridge will
 move little through Thursday, and the high-confidence short-term
 track forecast keeps Hector moving steadily west. Hector is expected
 to gradually turn toward the west-northwest in 36-48 hours as it
 reaches the southwestern periphery of the ridge, with a more decided
 turn toward the northwest expected after 72 hours. The updated track
 forecast lies close to the previous forecast and a tightly-packed
 guidance envelope through day 3. Increased guidance spread on days 4
 and 5 arises due to differences in the forecast strength and
 position of the ridge, and a developing low aloft to the northwest
 of Hector. With the previous forecast track near the middle of the
 guidance envelope, and close to the high-performing TVCN consensus,
 little change was made.
  
 Rather unusual to witness concentric eyewalls from a land-based
 Hawaii radar as has occurred with Hector today. While interesting
 from a science viewpoint, this adds some complexity to the short-
 term intensity and wind field forecast, as an eyewall replacement
 cycle (ERC) could soon follow. This process would lead to a
 temporary weakening of the cyclone, and some changes in the wind
 field. With uncertainty surrounding the timing and eventuality of
 any ERC, the intensity forecast anticipates little overall change
 over the next couple of days as Hector remains in a light shear
 environment with SSTs near 27C. Increasing southwesterly shear in
 the later forecast periods and decreasing SSTs toward day 5 will
 likely lead to weakening. The official forecast is close to SHIPS
 guidance, and follows trends indicated by FSSE and IVCN, but is not
 as aggressive in indicating weakening. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/0300Z 16.7N 156.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  09/1200Z 16.7N 159.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  10/0000Z 16.9N 161.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
  36H  10/1200Z 17.3N 164.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  11/0000Z 18.1N 167.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  12/0000Z 20.3N 172.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  13/0000Z 23.0N 177.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  14/0000Z 26.0N 178.0E   70 KT  80 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Birchard
  
 
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