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 621 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 141434
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012
 
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
 CENTER OF HECTOR...AND IT HAS MOVED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER
 DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
 ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER...THEREFORE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
 HELD AT 40 KT. HECTOR CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE EASTERLY
 SHEAR...WHICH HAS KEPT THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE
 CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH HECTOR CURRENTLY LIES
 OVER 28C WATER TEMPERATURES...IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C
 WATERS IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. GIVEN THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
 CONDITIONS...HECTOR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
 PERIOD AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3. DISSIPATION IS NOW
 SHOWN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
 GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. 
 
 RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT HECTOR IS NOW GAINING SOME
 LATITUDE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/5. A TURN TO THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS DUE TO A
 DEEPENING DEEP-LAYER LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF CALIFORNIA. A
 TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS AS
 HECTOR BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
 EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
 PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  14/1500Z 18.1N 114.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  15/0000Z 18.3N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  15/1200Z 18.7N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  16/0000Z 19.1N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  16/1200Z 19.7N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  17/1200Z 20.5N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  18/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
  
 
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