621
WTPZ43 KNHC 141434
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER OF HECTOR...AND IT HAS MOVED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER
DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER...THEREFORE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 40 KT. HECTOR CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR...WHICH HAS KEPT THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH HECTOR CURRENTLY LIES
OVER 28C WATER TEMPERATURES...IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C
WATERS IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. GIVEN THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...HECTOR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3. DISSIPATION IS NOW
SHOWN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT HECTOR IS NOW GAINING SOME
LATITUDE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/5. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS DUE TO A
DEEPENING DEEP-LAYER LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF CALIFORNIA. A
TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS AS
HECTOR BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 18.3N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 18.7N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 19.1N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 19.7N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 20.5N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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